Interesting Weather Information Past & Present

Climo:
So how cold has this cold winter been? Per the NWS the average Dec 1-Feb 15 temp. for KIAH has been 49.1 degrees or the 7th coldest on record and currently the first 15 days of Feb are the 8th coldest on record. More astounding is the fact that Galveston is currently running an impressive 8.0 degrees below average for the month of Feb. By far this has been one of the coldest winters of the past decade and likely for many since the late 1980’s.

Spring Outlook:
The outlook for the March-May period for TX will continue to favor the wetter and colder pattern of this winter. El Nino indicators have shown a gradual cooling of the current ENSO in progress with conditions heading toward neutral by early summer. This corresponds well with above average rainfall and continued cooler conditions. One interesting aspect is all this cold air affects on the Gulf water temps. Temperatures are running above 2.0 degrees colder than last year at this time over the Gulf. With all the cold and stable air in place it has been hard to get severe weather going along the Gulf coast this winter. During such El Nino winter severe threats and tornadoes are fairly common along the US Gulf coast. The combination of poor moisture quality over the Gulf and a very suppressed sub-tropical jet has resulted in all the “action” being out over the central Gulf of Mexico. This activity in this very active pattern should begin to lift northward over the next month, but the colder than average water temperatures may help mitigate much of a severe weather season until the Gulf warms a bit and the cold air intrusions abate.